Is Bitcoin’s Recent Rally Sustainable? Analysts Predict Challenges Ahead for Q3 2024

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  • Bitcoin reached a monthly high of $67,300, diverging from broader market trends shown by U.S. equities.
  • Coinbase analysts report increased sell orders near mid-price, suggesting potential resistance to further price increases.

Bitcoin reached a monthly peak of $67,300 despite a downturn in U.S. equities, signaling a temporary divergence from broader market trends. Coinbase analysts have indicated that this surge may not sustain due to heightened selling pressure observed near the current levels. Analysis of market depth shows a decrease between July 16 and 18, with an increase in ask volumes, suggesting potential resistance to further price increases.

Coinbase-order-book-depth
Source: Coinbase’s Market Depth

Further data analysis from CryptoQuant highlights that sell volumes on derivative exchanges exceeded buy volumes, a situation depicted by a Taker Buy Sell Ratio dropping below one, pointing towards a bearish sentiment. This is reflected in the increasing willingness of market participants to execute sell orders in anticipation of or in response to price gains.

Bitcoin-Taker-Buy-Sell-Ratio-All-Exchanges-3-2048x1152
Source: CryptoQuant

Despite these bearish indicators, Coinbase’s market commentary suggests Bitcoin might maintain its current trading range through the third quarter of 2024, with potential for upward movement in the fourth quarter, likely influenced by market expectations surrounding the U.S. elections.

This view is corroborated by QCP Capital, which notes the possibility of range-bound trading in the short term but does not rule out a breakout in response to political events.

“While spot could range here in the near term, especially with dealers very long the 26-Jul 67k Strike, the market is definitely betting big on a breakout heading into the US elections.”

At present, Bitcoin is facing a critical resistance level at $67,500. Should this level be breached, it could enable a rapid approach towards the upper range limit of $71,000, contingent upon market forces and investor responses to evolving economic indicators. 

The interplay between increased sell orders and potential bullish breakouts underscores the complexity of Bitcoin’s trading environment, which remains subject to both micro and macroeconomic influences.

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